2025 Oscar Buzz: Predicting the Next Best Picture Winner!

The 2025 Oscars are set to be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, March 2, with the nominations being announced earlier on January 17. Although there’s still some time before these events, at Gold Derby, we’re always eager to dive into the Academy Awards discussions early. Here’s a rundown of films that might compete for Best Picture and everything you need to know about them. (See below for our updated predictions for the 2025 Best Picture Oscar.)

Several films have already made waves in the festival circuits and are seen as early contenders for the Oscars. Greg Kwedar‘s prison-set docudrama “Sing Sing” premiered at the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival. Jesse Eisenberg‘s “A Real Pain,” a narrative about a road trip, was showcased at Sundance in January. Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune: Part Two” hit theaters in March, following its predecessor’s impressive haul of 10 Oscar nominations and six wins. The omission of Villeneuve by the directors branch was unexpected given the film’s success.

At the Cannes Film Festival, Sean Baker‘s “Anora,” a seriocomic tale, and Jacques Audiard‘s “Emilia Perez,” which blends multiple genres, both debuted. “Anora” clinched the top prize, the Palme d’Or, while the four lead actresses in “Emilia Perez” (Karla Sofía Gascon, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, and Zoe Saldana) shared the Best Actress award.

At the Venice Film Festival, Pedro Almodovar‘s first English-language film, “The Room Next Door,” won the Golden Lion and featured performances by Oscar winners Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton. Brady Corbet received the Best Director award for his film “The Brutalist,” starring Adrian Brody, and Tim Fehlbaum‘s “September 5,” a docudrama about the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis, garnered significant attention.

The Telluride Film Festival showcased numerous films with potential for Best Picture nominations. Edward Berger‘s “Conclave,” a gripping adaptation of a Robert Harris novel about a new pope’s election, starred Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow, and Stanley Tucci. First-time feature director RaMell Ross brought “Nickel Boys,” based on Colson Whitehead‘s Pulitzer-winning novel, to the screen, earning acclaim for its unique perspective. “The Piano Lesson,” directed by Malcolm Washington and involving his brother John David Washington and father Denzel Washington, also premiered.

The New York Film Festival will close with the premiere of Steve McQueen‘s WWII drama “Blitz,” featuring Oscar favorite Saoirse Ronan, who also stars in “The Outrun.”

Later in October, the AFI Fest in Los Angeles will debut two major studio films: Robert Zemeckis‘ “Here,” a drama reuniting “Forrest Gump” stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, and Clint Eastwood‘s courtroom drama “Juror No. 2,” marking Eastwood’s 40th film as a director.

Outside the festival circuit, big-budget films like Ridley Scott‘s “Gladiator 2,” a sequel to the 2001 Best Picture winner, and Jon M. Chu‘s “Wicked,” the much-anticipated film adaptation of the Broadway musical, are set to release.

To predict the 2025 Best Picture Oscar nominees, we consider several factors including the filmmakers’ track records, critical reception of their previous works, box office performance, and the studios’ history with the Oscars.

UPDATED: October 4, 2024

LEADING CONTENDERS (alphabetical order)

Detailed below are films leading our predictions for potential Best Picture nominations, complete with release dates, directors, cast, plots, and current critical scores.

“Anora” (Neon)

Release Date: October 18

Director: Sean Baker

Writer: Sean Baker

Cast: Mikey Maddison, Mark Eidelstein, Yuri Borisov, Vache Tovmasyan

Plot: “A comedy centered around a sex worker, capturing scenes in New York City and Las Vegas.”

Rotten Tomatoes Score: 98%

Metacritic Score: 89

And many more… (Please refer to the full list provided for comprehensive details on each film.)

STRONG CONTENDERS (alphabetical order)

These films also show strong potential for securing a nomination, noted for their unique stories and strong performances.

And more… (Complete details are available in the detailed list.)

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS (alphabetical order)

Additionally, here are films that could surprise us and make a run for a nomination, depending on how the season unfolds.

Comprehensive details on potential dark horses in the race can be found in the full listing.